The reason why the real estate industry in my country is a high -risk industry is because its investment and income cycle is long. There are also cyclical fluctuations in the real estate industry in my country. There are three indicators that can analyze the laws of cyclical fluctuations in real estate. Let me come here for everyone Let’s introduce the cyclical analysis of the real estate industry. Overview of real estate enterprise financing Financing is the process of funding, which refers to the process of moving the funds to the demanders, this process includes two aspects of the integration of funds and the integration of funds. The funding demander’s funds are a two -way interaction process. Real estate financing refers to fund -raising, fundraising, and integration funds based on monetary circulation and credit channels in the process of real estate development, construction, management, management, service and consumption. Looking at the development of real estate financing channels in China, it mainly includes a series of traditional financing channels such as debt financing, own funds, pre -collection and real estate bonds. Due to strict national approval standards, traditional financing channels have been restricted in actual operations, but their financing capabilities cannot be underestimated. The influencing factors of the financing of real estate enterprises The influencing factors of real estate financing are mainly divided into internal factors and external factors. The internal factors mainly include the business status of the enterprise, the size of the enterprise, and the nature of the enterprise ownership, and the external factors include the regulation of national policy, the overall situation of the industry, and the level of inflation. Both the development enterprises and the relevant economic departments have some direct or indirect connection, which determines that real estate financing activities are closer to the objective external environment. Generally speaking, real estate development enterprises should adopt the most suitable melancholy The life cycle stage of the real estate industry in my country Ifo n Based on the theory of the economic cycle, the view of the large and medium -sized life cycle of real estate in my country. The life cycle of the real estate industry in my country. 2012-2015 will be the time window for my country’s real estate industry to enter a recession period from maturity. At present, my country’s real estate industry is slowly entering the early stage of the recession period. As far as the medium cycle is concerned, my country’s real estate industry is in the middle and late stages of the rigorous policy cycle. Profolding several major basic facts and inferences of the strict policy regulation and control. This round of regulation has proved that the policy is fully capable of governing house prices, insufficient real purchasing power in the property market, and not losing money without paying money. Based on this, it will be derived from policy regulation such as “purchase restrictions”. In the middle and late stages of the decline of the mid -cycle. The performance and prediction of the growth, profitability and inventory of the real estate industry. The key indicators of industry growth, profitability and inventory industries from 2000 to 2010 have clearly proved the existence of the life cycle of the real estate industry in China and proved the current period of the real estate industry in my country. Valuation judgment and investment strategies under the perspective of the cycle. The industrial life cycle can well explain the history of real estate development and the major phenomenon of many markets and policies at present, and make a clear judgment on the future. The phenomenon of innovation low can make clear predictions on future valuations. However, the sensitivity of the policy and valuation policy also determines the existence of local investment opportunities. According to the big cycle point of view, companies that have the strength to achieve business and profit model innovation and breakthroughs are the first main line to excavate the main line. It is recommended to pay attention to Vanke, Poly Real Estate, Goldland Group and China Merchants Real Estate; Powerful enterprises are another main line of excavation. We recommend paying attention to Vanke, Poly Real Estate, Goldland Group, Financial Street, Zhongnan Jianye’s gross profit margin and growth, and industry inventory will grow rapidly. The macro -control of real estate since the second half of 2003 caused people to discuss the periodic stage of China’s real estate industry. The rise of this discussion not only reflects the historical desire of people’s historical positioning of the development of China’s real estate industry, but also reflects people’s concerns about the current situation of China’s real estate industry and prospects. For the government, only by scientifically defining and judging the changes and causes of China’s real estate cycle can it help adopt a suitable macroeconomic regulatory policy and guide the real estate industry to continue to grow healthy. For real estate companies, it is necessary to effectively adjust the development goals and development strategies by judging the development stage of the real estate industry in accordance with the characteristics of the cycle changes in real estate. For residents, whether it is consumer or investment, accurately speculate that the length of the real estate cycle is conducive to grasping a good market timing. Specifically, how long can people try to interpret how long can the Chinese real estate market last after several years of continuous rise in the real estate industry? Is it close to the recession? What is the prospect of the real estate industry after regulation? When do you wait? Although the current academic and entrepreneurs are still different from the economic cycle of China’s real estate industry, most thesexes have affirmed the existence of the economic cycle of China’s real estate industry. However, in -depth analysis shows that it is not appropriate to mover the concept of the real estate economic cycle to China; it is unscientific to propose that there are several economic cycles in China’s real estate industry; The status quo of China’s real estate is also incorrect. Because the market environment and development phase of China’s real estate industry are essentially different from those countries with mature market economies; the system variables that dominate the change of China’s real estate industry must be stronger than the impact of other technology and economic variables. This is related to the developed market economy. The country is also extremely different. If the background of the difference between institutional variables and system changes is ignored, only the theory of real estate economic cycle theory is used to explain China’s reality. The result can only be “like and different.” Therefore, we need to start from the reality of China’s real estate industry and combine the economic cycle theory to make a reasonable and scientific definition. The real estate economy, as a part of the entire macroeconomic, is not exactly the same as the macroeconomic, but it is also affected by various factors like a macroeconomic economy, and there is obvious cyclical fluctuations. In the real estate fluctuations, there are also four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. In these four stages, the real estate market shows different characteristics. Specifically, the recovery stage begins at the lowest point of the previous cycle, and the output and price are at the lowest level. With the recovery of the economy, the recovery of production, and the increase in demand, prices have gradually risen. With the driving of demand, real estate supply has also begun to increase, and a few real estate speculators have begun to seek opportunities. With the further rise of the real estate market, market participants are full of optimism, and the land market and housing replacement markets are beginning to be active. Banks have increased the number of mortgage loans for real estate, and new funds in other channels have also begun to enter the real estate sector to promote the development of the real estate industry. After a certain period of development, the real estate industry has begun to enter the prosperity stage. The prosperity stage is the peak stage of the economic cycle. When the continuous expansion of investment and consumer demand exceeds the growth of output, the stimulus price rises rapidly to a high level. The number of real estate development projects and construction has further increased, and a large number of companies in other industries have entered the real estate industry from the desire of ten high profits. The rise in real estate prices has increased significantly, and real estate bubbles have continued to swell. The amount of bank mortgage loans has increased, and speculation in the real estate market has become a wind. Participants are generally profitable. The enthusiasm is unprecedented and unprecedented. House prices are unattainable. The price bubble composition is great. The society began to call for the restrictions on the property market. After the recession stage appeared at the peak of the economic cycle, due to the sudden changes in macro fundamentals or policies, many people began to pessimistic about the real estate market and sold real estate. Investors engaged in real estate investment have also joined the ranks of selling. Real estate prices plummeted, and real estate bubbles began to break. Due to the plunge of house prices, the intention of buyers to enter the market has been attacked and watched, which made the seller sell panic because of the difficulty of turning. Real estate companies have begun to go bankrupt, and banks are also facing financial risks due to non -performing loans in the real estate sector. The declined real estate industry drove the national economy to start to decline. Due to the shrinking demand, the supply greatly exceeded the demand, the price jumped rapidly, and finally the depression came. Real estate sales prices and rental levels continued to decline along the decline in the decline period, and real estate prices fell amazing. Due to the long -term decline in house prices, the real estate bubble was completely shattered by the approaching or even below the construction cost of house prices. At this time, market transactions are light, the market vacancy rate is high, and the phenomenon of bankruptcy of real estate companies is generally common. Due to the existence of market demand and the adjustment of real estate supply, housing prices have begun to stop falling, and maintained at a lower level. The depression stage is the bottom of the economic cycle. With the past, the entire economy has entered the recovery stage and began to enter a new economic cycle. pro -definition and characteristics, let’s specifically examine whether there is a clear economic cycle in China’s real estate. If you simply judge whether a country has a real estate economic cycle from the price of real estate prices and output fluctuations, it is easy to find some “regular phenomena”. Some discussioners have found similar “four -stage” performance in accordance with the changes in the sales growth rate, investment growth rate, industrial growth rate, and price rise in China’s commercial housing. the opinion of. Due to the differences in the indicators, some theoreticals believe that there have been four peaks in China’s real estate industry since the end of the 1980s, namely in 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. It happened to be 5 years and one cycle. Some discussions believe that my country’s real estate economy has gone through three cycles since 1983. The first two are the five -year rise and two -year decline. From 1983 to 1988, it rose, from 1989 to 1990 a two -year decline; from 1991 to 1995, it was another rising period. , 1996 and 1997 declined again. It is the third rising cycle since 1998, and it is also the fastest growing cycle. The inflection point of this cycle has not yet appeared. It to determine the formation of China’s real estate economy cycle, it is necessary to fully consider institutional variables, not just paint with some indicator data; only when the system changes from quantitative changes to qualitative changes, the operation of China’s real estate industry is truly really the actual operation of the real estate industry. Promoted by the market, its fluctuations truly show cyclical characteristics.
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