(1) National real estate development status 1. Analysis of the development of the national real estate market industry The growth rate of real estate investment will slow down. Under the context of the introduction of a series of macro -control policies such as government control housing prices, adjusting housing supply structure, strengthening land control, and credit control, the overexposed investment impulse of local governments will be suppressed to a certain extent and the growth rate of land and housing development investment will be suppressed to a certain extent. It will also slow down. At the same time, the slowdown in the growth rate of real estate development loans and consumer loans caused by measures such as interest rate hikes and increased deposit reserve rates will directly affect the scale and construction and completion speed of real estate development. Therefore, as a whole, if the state’s macro -control policy for real estate is in place, the growth rate of my country’s real estate development investment will slow down in the next 2-3 years, but it is estimated that it will not be less than 20 %. The contradiction between market supply and demand imbalances will continue. In recent years, the factors that affect the changes in demand for real estate’s macro -control policies in recent years are: the increase in bank deposits and loan interest rates, control secondary house purchase and speculative house purchase, and control the scale of demolition. However, as the expectations of the RMB appreciation have continued to stimulate “hot money” to pour into my country, and most of them have flowed into the real estate sector. In the next 2-3 years, the investment in the real estate market in some areas of my country will still increase. The real estate prices will remain upward. From the analysis of the supply and demand relationship, it can be judged that the real estate prices in my country will remain up in the next 2-3 years, because the contradiction between the unbalanced development of the supply and demand development of the first real estate market (especially the demand will continue to grow rapidly Trend) must be reflected in the continuous growth of house prices; The development costs brought about by the improvement of land prices, building materials, and the improvement of commercial housing in recent years will promote rising house prices; See, the motion trend of house prices is positively related to the national economic growth rate and the disposable income of residents. At present, my country’s economic development is rapid, and residents’ income continues to increase. Unless the financial crisis is encountered, the economic growth trend is forced to interrupt, otherwise the operating trend of house prices will only increase and cannot decline. The supply of ordinary housing will increase, and high -end residential supply will decrease. In order to reasonably guide housing construction and consumption, the state provided preferential policy support for small and medium -sized and low -priced ordinary housing in planning approval, credit, taxation, etc., and explicitly stipulates that the specific standards for ordinary housing enjoying preferential policies are stipulated in Essence In the next 2 to 3 years, with the successive introduction of the real estate macro -control rules in various places, the supply of low -priced prices, small and medium -sized ordinary commercial housing, economic affordable housing and low -rent housing will increase. The eastern region will still be the main area of investment, and the central and western regions will maintain a faster investment growth. The proportion of the eastern region in the national real estate development investment will continue to decline, and the central and western regions will continue to maintain a rapid investment growth, and the proportion of the national real estate development investment will increase. The asset reorganization of real estate development enterprises will be promoted in depth. Some developing companies will transfer the front to vigorously develop the market for second and third -tier cities in the eastern region, and gradually extend to the whole country, thereby driving the development of the real estate markets of these cities.
With the macroeconomic impact of the real estate market, although China’s real estate industry as a whole as a whole shows a prosperous, its growth rate has slowed down. Looking forward to the “Fourteenth Five -Year Plan”, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the turning point of housing is coming, that is, the absolute amount of housing sales will decline. The development of China Real Estate Technology in the next 10 years, the main line is still green buildings. At present, it has reached the era of green buildings in 4.0.
Once the real estate bubble is unpredictable, I hope what I think is wrong. If each Chinese house has a house, it will be overwhelmed. Falling house prices will affect many industries such as machinery, steel, and home. Causes the world’s economic storm again. I don’t want to have this day, I can’t stop it from all of this. I can’t help myself solve all problems now. But as long as everyone is aware of this problem, don’t deliberately go to the speculation, thinking about getting rich overnight in the land and house prices, I don’t think this day will happen. Contempt, I hope everyone understands.
China’s real estate is currently in a relatively balanced stage. On the one hand, the government regulates house prices, resulting in greater supply and demand, and house prices have declined. On the other hand, the rigidity of ordinary people must cause house prices to not fall sharply.
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